6,000,000 for Redemption: A Deal Made With Haman
This is a reprint of a letter that I wrote to Rav Lazer Brody back in December of 2005. It deals with the subject that I broached but did not complete on the Tamar Yonah show earlier today.In continuation of today's earlier post about assimilation, I received a very special letter from the "Maggid" of Kochav Yaakov, my esteemed friend Dov Bar-Leib, may Hashem bless him, his family, and his community. Here's what Reb Dov writes:Dear Reb Lazer:It is gut wrenching to report, but there is an end-times source for this Holocaust in America. Zechariya HaNavi tells us that two out of three of us will not make it. Only one-third of Klal Yisrael will be refined to welcome Mashiach.In 1939 there were 18 million Jews in the world. Hitler, yemach shmo (may his name be wiped out - LB), took a third, but because they died for the Sanctification of HaShem's Name, they have a spiritual rebirth in our time. In the American Holocaust, another one-third has no spiritual rebirth, for they chose their path, sometimes through total ignorance. This leaves the original six million taken by Hitler, yemach shmo, who are here to say "Baruch HaBah" to Mashiach. Thank G-d, that the original six million has divided up into 6 million men and 6 million women for a total of 12 million Halakhic Jews in the world. The reason for this is steeped in Kabbala and has to do with the number of Jews that Haman purchased for slaughter with 10,000 Kikar. You can read about it in my article "6 million for Makhzit HaShekel" on my blog site.The calculation is not so complicated. When Yosef was sold into slavery, each of the ten brothers received 2 dinar which according to most sources was equal to 1/2 of a Shekel or Makhzit HaShekel. The total 20 dinar received for the sale was therefore equal to five shekel, the amount which is equivalent to redeeming the firstborn, Pidyon HaBen. As our sources tell us, the coins were then used to buy shoes from the Midyanim who were passing by at the same time as the Yishmaelim. Since Yosef represented 1/10th of those who benefited from the transaction, a tikun of Makhzit HaShekel makes sense. 600,000 men at Sinai would give 300,000 shekel which would purchase 300,000 divided by five equalling 60,000 Josephs back from slavery. How Yosef would be rewarded with the 36 silver crowns is described in my article. Of course this relates Chanukah to Purim, probably a subject of another article.It is worth noting that the Makhzit HaShekel (half shekel - LB) coin was actually a coin that was worth twice as much with twice as much silver since the crime of selling Yosef against his will required the brothers to pay back double, "kefel". After the Chait HaEigel, the Makhzit HaShekel would not suffice to bring Klal Yisrael back to the "Gate of Gan Eden" from which we fell back because of that Chait, for now all 600,000 needed to be redeemed. This, of course would require 6 million Jewish men giving 3 million shekel. You see, the Chait HaEigel (sin of the golden calf - LB) is intimately intertwined with Mechirat Yosef (sale of Joseph - LB), for the same plate that was used to cause Yosef to rise out of his burial spot in the Nile was used later by the sons of Bilaam to cause the Eigel to appear from the fire into which Aharon had thrown the gold.When Haman put 10,000 kikar of silver into the genizah (treasury - LB) of the King, he intended to buy all the Jews for slaughter. The question arises how many Jews did he purchase. From Parshat Pekudei we see that 603,550 men in the desert contributed from Makhzit HaShekel 100 kikar of silver for the Adanim (one kikar for each socket holding together the fifty beams that formed the skeleton for the tabernacle, two sockets for each beam, one on top and one on the bottom) plus 1775 additional shekel for the hooks on the pillars. The 1775 additional shekels come the 3550 Jews over the exact 600,000 figure. Since exactly 600,000 Jews gave 300,000 shekel of silver which equals 100 kikar, we get a conversion factor of 3,000 shekel /kikar of silver. 10,000 kikar times 3000 shekel /kikar equals 30 million shekel. 30 million shekel divided by five shekel per person purchased six million Jews for slaughter! HaShem said that Amalek's purchase was valid, but not in that generation. Only a generation just before Mashiach would come would need such merit for Mashiach to come. In the merit of that 6 million who perished, 6 million male Jews and 6 million female Jews will witness the miracles of Israel's great redemption speedily in our day and will willingly donate 3 million shekel for the Third Temple effectively cleansing our Sin of the Eigel HaZahav. My forgiveness - May we have Jews in excess
Friday, May 2, 2008
May 02, 2008 8:19 AMsara just-->
"75% Off Giuliani and Romney"
…or so says a sign atop a basket of buttons in the sundry shop at The Westin Indianapolis.
Buttons for Clinton, McCain and Obama remain sold at regular price; the GOP also-ran pins are priced-to-move.
**
It's tough to poll in Indiana, I am told, since voters do not register by party.
That said, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, seems to have an edge here, at least as evidenced by her endorsement by the editorial board of the Indianapolis Star, which today says she "is well prepared for the rigors of the White House. She is tough, experienced and realistic about what can and cannot be accomplished on the world stage."
(Two caveats, per the Star -- "Clinton regrettably has pandered more to voters, particularly on gas prices, than Obama. Both have taken stands on free trade that give in to protectionism. Clinton also was an integral part of her husband's political machine, which earned a reputation for flattening opponents. That factor understandably gives many voters pause about whether another Clinton should serve as president.")
**
One wonders about Clinton's heralded experience when one reads headlines abroad.
Her comments to Good Morning America's Chris Cuomo about Iran a couple weeks ago raised proverbial eyebrows.
As you may recall, Clinton said that were Iran to attack Israel with nuclear weapons, "I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran…In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."
On Wednesday Iran's Deputy Ambassador to the UN Mehdi Danesh-Yazdi complained to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the president of the Security Council, saying in a letter that her comments were "provocative, unwarranted and irresponsible" as well as, according to the official Iranian news agency, a "blatant violation of the UN Charter and contradictory to all international legal principles on rights of other nations."
Across the pond, former UN deputy secretary-general Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, the British foreign office minister responsible for Asia, told reporters that "while it is reasonable to warn Iran of the consequence of it continuing to develop nuclear weapons and what those real consequences bring to its security, it is not probably prudent... in today's world to threaten to obliterate any other country and in many cases civilians resident in such a country."
Clinton in 1999, you may recall, called another international dust-up for the opposite reason -- she sat by as Suha Arafat (speaking in Arabic) accused Israel of poisoning Palestinians, then gave Mrs. Arafat a kiss on the cheek. Clinton later said the translation of what Arafat was saying sounded less harsh, and she condemned "inflammatory rhetoric" and "baseless accusations."
After Clinton launched her 2000 Senate campaign, Republicans later attempted to make hay out of the incident to obviously little success.
"75% Off Giuliani and Romney"
…or so says a sign atop a basket of buttons in the sundry shop at The Westin Indianapolis.
Buttons for Clinton, McCain and Obama remain sold at regular price; the GOP also-ran pins are priced-to-move.
**
It's tough to poll in Indiana, I am told, since voters do not register by party.
That said, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, seems to have an edge here, at least as evidenced by her endorsement by the editorial board of the Indianapolis Star, which today says she "is well prepared for the rigors of the White House. She is tough, experienced and realistic about what can and cannot be accomplished on the world stage."
(Two caveats, per the Star -- "Clinton regrettably has pandered more to voters, particularly on gas prices, than Obama. Both have taken stands on free trade that give in to protectionism. Clinton also was an integral part of her husband's political machine, which earned a reputation for flattening opponents. That factor understandably gives many voters pause about whether another Clinton should serve as president.")
**
One wonders about Clinton's heralded experience when one reads headlines abroad.
Her comments to Good Morning America's Chris Cuomo about Iran a couple weeks ago raised proverbial eyebrows.
As you may recall, Clinton said that were Iran to attack Israel with nuclear weapons, "I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran…In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."
On Wednesday Iran's Deputy Ambassador to the UN Mehdi Danesh-Yazdi complained to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the president of the Security Council, saying in a letter that her comments were "provocative, unwarranted and irresponsible" as well as, according to the official Iranian news agency, a "blatant violation of the UN Charter and contradictory to all international legal principles on rights of other nations."
Across the pond, former UN deputy secretary-general Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, the British foreign office minister responsible for Asia, told reporters that "while it is reasonable to warn Iran of the consequence of it continuing to develop nuclear weapons and what those real consequences bring to its security, it is not probably prudent... in today's world to threaten to obliterate any other country and in many cases civilians resident in such a country."
Clinton in 1999, you may recall, called another international dust-up for the opposite reason -- she sat by as Suha Arafat (speaking in Arabic) accused Israel of poisoning Palestinians, then gave Mrs. Arafat a kiss on the cheek. Clinton later said the translation of what Arafat was saying sounded less harsh, and she condemned "inflammatory rhetoric" and "baseless accusations."
After Clinton launched her 2000 Senate campaign, Republicans later attempted to make hay out of the incident to obviously little success.
Q3 FY08 Earnings
I may or may not be covering this in detail today. To be honest, I'm close to packing it in wrt both MSFT and this blog. However, for those who wandered over here looking for the usual review, expectations are as follows:
The Street is looking for revenue of $14.5 billion and EPS of 44 cents. The company’s guidance was for revenue of $14.3 billion to $14.6 billion, with EPS of 43-45 cents.
With the YHOO thing still hanging over us, reaction to strong results are likely to be muted. And with GOOG and AAPL having already posted blowout results, anything from MSFT will seem average by comparison - which of course it is. On the other hand, negative results and/or weak guidance will be punished severely. Personally, I expect a strong report given higher than expected PC sales. However, I think guidance will be on the modest side given the declining macro economic picture and MSFT's typical conservatism. So tomorrow, the stock may be $1 or so higher best case, or $1-$2 lower worst case. Then we'll drift along some more until the YHOO thing finally gets resolved. If that's a merger, then the stock will take a hit and be dead money for two more years. And if it's walk away, then maybe the stock goes up $2-$3 until worries about how MSFT can curb GOOG's growth without YHOO take over and drive the price back down $2-$3. In other words, yawn.
Results:
On first blush it's not great and the stock is off 5% to $1.62 in the after hours session presently. At $14.45 billion, revenue is in the middle (exactly) of company guidance but light versus consensus. Considering how much further the US$ fell during the Q, that's particularly weak. EPS at .47 looks to be a solid beat, but there's some noise there wrt charges and I haven't detailed what was in/out yet. The item that jumps out is that expenses came in very hot. In particular "Cost of revenue" and "General and administrative". As a result, net income fell off a cliff. Again, I haven't detailed what's behind that yet, although a billion of it looks to be accounting for the EC fine. There's a note in the .ppt that says "Operating income" would have been $5.8 billion ex the fine, which would have exceeded company guidance of $5.6-$5.7 billion. Not that investors apparently care about the distinction.
Results by segment are as follows (technology guarantee impact making compares difficult):
Again looking quickly, Client sucked. And it seems to be not just the technology guarantee impact but also anemic OEM growth. The .ppt brags about the same 140M Vista licenses sold that we've been hearing about for a while now. So clearly there's been no acceleration wrt installed base upgrades either. Surprise! Not. MBD was also weak. I haven't delved further to figure out why. Server put in a strong showing as per usual. Kudos to that group at least. And E&D managed to eke out a paper profit (as long as you ignore intra-group transfers and the convenient "Corporate-level activity" bucket).
Guidance for Q4 is $15.5-$15.8 billion. The street was expecting $15.6 billion, so nothing too negative there. But EPS guidance is .45 -.48, whereas consensus was .48. So that's a guide down.
Of course, since next fiscal provides lots of time for things to change, to beg forgiveness, or for a YHOO merger to screw up compares enough to make burying a subsequent miss easy, and since having the stock drop too far currently isn't ideal given the pending YHOO merger, the company is able to look past Q4's set back and be unreservedly bullish for FY09:
Revenue is expected to be in the range of $66.9 billion to $68.0 billion.
Operating income is expected to be in the range of $26.7 billion to $27.4 billion.
Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $2.13 to $2.19.
Wall Street analysts were forecasting EPS of $2.00 to $2.20 per share ($2.10 consensus), on revenue of $66.5 billion.
Buybacks during the quarter were unsurprisingly light at around $1 billion.
Sample media reaction:
Microsoft's Revenue, 4Q Outlook Disappoint the Street
Microsoft quarter view disappoints, bullish on '09
LIVE ANALYSIS: Microsoft FQ3 Weaker Than Expected
And:
Microsoft: FY Q3 Windows Demand Falls Short Of Forecast
Excerpts:
Tracy notes that revenues from the Client division - the Windows business - had been expected to be down 18%-20% year over year, but actually fell 24%. He notes that Microsoft believes PC market growth was 8%-10% in the quarter, below the company’s previous estimate of 9%-11%. I would note here that other estimates of Q1 PC unit growth are higher: IDC says units grew 12.3%; Gartner says growth was 14.6%.
Minimum 20% miss versus forecast on a business this large? Not good. Who is getting fired? Kidding, we know no one will be. And who to believe wrt actual PC shipments? FWIW, I'm going with IDC and guessing a mix shift back to lower priced/lower margin XP and towards Linux in UMPCs and emerging markets is what is really responsible for the miss - which is even more concerning.
Tracy notes that the Microsoft Business Division’s revenues came in about $20 million to $30 million below expectations. He says the server and online businesses were in line with expectations. He says the entertainment and devices segment was ahead of plan, driven by strong Xbox 360 sales
You know it's a weak report overall when MSFT is reduced to playing up E&D's results.
Update:
Thank God for the last minute "surge" today, or the maximum $2 downside target that I postulated yesterday would have been exceeded on a closing basis. As it was, the stock was down more than $2 during the session. But it managed to end the day down a mere $1.97. Hopefully you appreciate the psychologically important distinction there, because I'll bet dollars to donuts a bunch more of our cash got spent in order to ensure that result. So, let's call it $18 billion of shareholder wealth destruction. Not bad for one day's work.
Having listened again to the fifty something minute excuse-fest that passed for a conference call last night, I can see why investors were dumping. If I had a dollar for every "woulda, coulda, shoulda" that was uttered, I'd be rich today instead of just poorer like most shareholders. Liddell's attempt to blame the Client shortfall in part on some mysterious piracy problem with a Chinese distributor and their "market dynamics" (which when coupled with the recent MSFT/Novell/China announcement is probably really about Linux competition), while comically maintaining that there is no Vista problem (even though the "sold" counter is moving slower than Zimbabwe's national election results), just shows how much contempt this management team has for the truth and the intelligence of its shareholders. Most companies bend the truth. That's expected. But MSFT's current management team just dispense with it entirely.
I especially got a kick out of their self-congratulations for the wise "investments" made and diversification achieved, how good they feel about the way the business is performing, and how much they will have increased EPS by - assuming they make their targets - over the past three years or so (which conveniently have now morphed from the biggest product lineup in company history being well received by customers as recently as last Q, to "one of the most difficult economic environments we've seen". Huh?). Pop quiz: What has all this supposed goodness meant for the people they have a fiduciary obligation to - shareholders? Answer: Effectively squat. Had you simply invested in the indexes over the same period, you would have had a better return with much less volatility. Extending that to 5 years, you would have outperformed MSFT by approximately 34% to 50% ex-dividends (depending on whether you chose the S&P or the NASDAQ). And let's not even bother comparing returns to companies that have actually performed for shareholders like AAPL, GOOG, HPQ, or even IBM of all people.
I wonder if I'm unique among shareholders in that I'm only ever half-listening to their tired self-serving bullshit. Meanwhile, a virtual ticker tape of MSFT's moribund stock price this decade is scrolling along in my mind, serving to negate much of what they're saying and underscoring just how out of touch with reality they are. Based on market reaction today, it looks like at least some others reached similar conclusions.
Anyway, this piece includes analysts reactions following last night's results:
Microsoft Shares Stumble; Earnings A Mix Bag; Xbox Strong, But Windows Disappoints; Waiting For Yahoo
There's also some additional color on the financial sinkhole that is Online in this piece:
Microsoft Cuts Outlook for MSN, Online Display Ads Weakening
Again, Ballmer must have a really low opinion of the average investor's IQ if he thinks we can review data like this and still believe him that MSFT has a "solid" strategy here with or without YHOO. They don't. They have another financial clusterfuck that rivals Xbox, and investors are more than smart enough to see that - which partially explains the stock action.
I may or may not be covering this in detail today. To be honest, I'm close to packing it in wrt both MSFT and this blog. However, for those who wandered over here looking for the usual review, expectations are as follows:
The Street is looking for revenue of $14.5 billion and EPS of 44 cents. The company’s guidance was for revenue of $14.3 billion to $14.6 billion, with EPS of 43-45 cents.
With the YHOO thing still hanging over us, reaction to strong results are likely to be muted. And with GOOG and AAPL having already posted blowout results, anything from MSFT will seem average by comparison - which of course it is. On the other hand, negative results and/or weak guidance will be punished severely. Personally, I expect a strong report given higher than expected PC sales. However, I think guidance will be on the modest side given the declining macro economic picture and MSFT's typical conservatism. So tomorrow, the stock may be $1 or so higher best case, or $1-$2 lower worst case. Then we'll drift along some more until the YHOO thing finally gets resolved. If that's a merger, then the stock will take a hit and be dead money for two more years. And if it's walk away, then maybe the stock goes up $2-$3 until worries about how MSFT can curb GOOG's growth without YHOO take over and drive the price back down $2-$3. In other words, yawn.
Results:
On first blush it's not great and the stock is off 5% to $1.62 in the after hours session presently. At $14.45 billion, revenue is in the middle (exactly) of company guidance but light versus consensus. Considering how much further the US$ fell during the Q, that's particularly weak. EPS at .47 looks to be a solid beat, but there's some noise there wrt charges and I haven't detailed what was in/out yet. The item that jumps out is that expenses came in very hot. In particular "Cost of revenue" and "General and administrative". As a result, net income fell off a cliff. Again, I haven't detailed what's behind that yet, although a billion of it looks to be accounting for the EC fine. There's a note in the .ppt that says "Operating income" would have been $5.8 billion ex the fine, which would have exceeded company guidance of $5.6-$5.7 billion. Not that investors apparently care about the distinction.
Results by segment are as follows (technology guarantee impact making compares difficult):
Again looking quickly, Client sucked. And it seems to be not just the technology guarantee impact but also anemic OEM growth. The .ppt brags about the same 140M Vista licenses sold that we've been hearing about for a while now. So clearly there's been no acceleration wrt installed base upgrades either. Surprise! Not. MBD was also weak. I haven't delved further to figure out why. Server put in a strong showing as per usual. Kudos to that group at least. And E&D managed to eke out a paper profit (as long as you ignore intra-group transfers and the convenient "Corporate-level activity" bucket).
Guidance for Q4 is $15.5-$15.8 billion. The street was expecting $15.6 billion, so nothing too negative there. But EPS guidance is .45 -.48, whereas consensus was .48. So that's a guide down.
Of course, since next fiscal provides lots of time for things to change, to beg forgiveness, or for a YHOO merger to screw up compares enough to make burying a subsequent miss easy, and since having the stock drop too far currently isn't ideal given the pending YHOO merger, the company is able to look past Q4's set back and be unreservedly bullish for FY09:
Revenue is expected to be in the range of $66.9 billion to $68.0 billion.
Operating income is expected to be in the range of $26.7 billion to $27.4 billion.
Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $2.13 to $2.19.
Wall Street analysts were forecasting EPS of $2.00 to $2.20 per share ($2.10 consensus), on revenue of $66.5 billion.
Buybacks during the quarter were unsurprisingly light at around $1 billion.
Sample media reaction:
Microsoft's Revenue, 4Q Outlook Disappoint the Street
Microsoft quarter view disappoints, bullish on '09
LIVE ANALYSIS: Microsoft FQ3 Weaker Than Expected
And:
Microsoft: FY Q3 Windows Demand Falls Short Of Forecast
Excerpts:
Tracy notes that revenues from the Client division - the Windows business - had been expected to be down 18%-20% year over year, but actually fell 24%. He notes that Microsoft believes PC market growth was 8%-10% in the quarter, below the company’s previous estimate of 9%-11%. I would note here that other estimates of Q1 PC unit growth are higher: IDC says units grew 12.3%; Gartner says growth was 14.6%.
Minimum 20% miss versus forecast on a business this large? Not good. Who is getting fired? Kidding, we know no one will be. And who to believe wrt actual PC shipments? FWIW, I'm going with IDC and guessing a mix shift back to lower priced/lower margin XP and towards Linux in UMPCs and emerging markets is what is really responsible for the miss - which is even more concerning.
Tracy notes that the Microsoft Business Division’s revenues came in about $20 million to $30 million below expectations. He says the server and online businesses were in line with expectations. He says the entertainment and devices segment was ahead of plan, driven by strong Xbox 360 sales
You know it's a weak report overall when MSFT is reduced to playing up E&D's results.
Update:
Thank God for the last minute "surge" today, or the maximum $2 downside target that I postulated yesterday would have been exceeded on a closing basis. As it was, the stock was down more than $2 during the session. But it managed to end the day down a mere $1.97. Hopefully you appreciate the psychologically important distinction there, because I'll bet dollars to donuts a bunch more of our cash got spent in order to ensure that result. So, let's call it $18 billion of shareholder wealth destruction. Not bad for one day's work.
Having listened again to the fifty something minute excuse-fest that passed for a conference call last night, I can see why investors were dumping. If I had a dollar for every "woulda, coulda, shoulda" that was uttered, I'd be rich today instead of just poorer like most shareholders. Liddell's attempt to blame the Client shortfall in part on some mysterious piracy problem with a Chinese distributor and their "market dynamics" (which when coupled with the recent MSFT/Novell/China announcement is probably really about Linux competition), while comically maintaining that there is no Vista problem (even though the "sold" counter is moving slower than Zimbabwe's national election results), just shows how much contempt this management team has for the truth and the intelligence of its shareholders. Most companies bend the truth. That's expected. But MSFT's current management team just dispense with it entirely.
I especially got a kick out of their self-congratulations for the wise "investments" made and diversification achieved, how good they feel about the way the business is performing, and how much they will have increased EPS by - assuming they make their targets - over the past three years or so (which conveniently have now morphed from the biggest product lineup in company history being well received by customers as recently as last Q, to "one of the most difficult economic environments we've seen". Huh?). Pop quiz: What has all this supposed goodness meant for the people they have a fiduciary obligation to - shareholders? Answer: Effectively squat. Had you simply invested in the indexes over the same period, you would have had a better return with much less volatility. Extending that to 5 years, you would have outperformed MSFT by approximately 34% to 50% ex-dividends (depending on whether you chose the S&P or the NASDAQ). And let's not even bother comparing returns to companies that have actually performed for shareholders like AAPL, GOOG, HPQ, or even IBM of all people.
I wonder if I'm unique among shareholders in that I'm only ever half-listening to their tired self-serving bullshit. Meanwhile, a virtual ticker tape of MSFT's moribund stock price this decade is scrolling along in my mind, serving to negate much of what they're saying and underscoring just how out of touch with reality they are. Based on market reaction today, it looks like at least some others reached similar conclusions.
Anyway, this piece includes analysts reactions following last night's results:
Microsoft Shares Stumble; Earnings A Mix Bag; Xbox Strong, But Windows Disappoints; Waiting For Yahoo
There's also some additional color on the financial sinkhole that is Online in this piece:
Microsoft Cuts Outlook for MSN, Online Display Ads Weakening
Again, Ballmer must have a really low opinion of the average investor's IQ if he thinks we can review data like this and still believe him that MSFT has a "solid" strategy here with or without YHOO. They don't. They have another financial clusterfuck that rivals Xbox, and investors are more than smart enough to see that - which partially explains the stock action.
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